How do we identify young people who are not yet starting but have the potential to change the world in the future?
I want to talk about a talent that is often overlooked. It's not as easy to quantify as IQ or resume, but it often determines whether a person can get off track and get out of their own path. I call it Structural Divergence Capacity. This is not simply self-discipline or self-drive, but refers to whether you can set your own goals, continue to push forward, and grow independently without tasks and external pressure.
Over the past few years, I've met tens of thousands of entrepreneurs. What fascinates me the most is not the people with bright resumes and perfect expressions, but the young people who are not very conventional. They are jumpy, intuitive, and uninterpretive, but often have a primitive impulse to explore. You can feel that there is a fire in them, but it hasn't burned yet.
A lot of people ask me, do I have to wait for them to make some achievements? My answer is, not necessarily. Those young people who have not yet "drawn their knives" are more worthy of voting. Just like what is said in "The Art of War", "those who are good at fighting have no outstanding achievements", and they have become a trend without making a move, and they have also avoided hurting themselves by making improper shots.
For young people, the most precious state is the stage when they are about to make a move but have not yet shown their swords. They have strong motivations, early judgments, but they are not yet finalized, and because of this, the incremental value of supporting them is huge. Of course, there are some people who have drawn the knife but failed, and if you can quickly learn from it and form a reflection, it is also a sign of maturity.
But most young people are not without potential, but trapped by three invisible forces: limited cognition, lack of courage, and disorientation. It's not that they're not smart, it's just that they haven't jumped out of the mainstream path, they don't dare to accept failure, or they gradually give up in the collision between ideals and reality. The young people who really have the ability to grow outside the structure are the ones who are already breaking through these barriers.
Such people may not see themselves as students during their time at school. Their sources of information are diverse, decentralized, and even unstable. They take the initiative to open a VPN to learn the frontier, contact strangers, download non-mainstream apps, try product prototypes, and organize friends to try them. They even know how to disguise themselves – to show weakness as students when they need to get help. They may not have a record on the timetable, but they have their own learning path; I may not brush my face during the event, but I am always in action. They don't look like they've been bred, they're more like they've grown on their own.
That's why we need to look for people who are about to break through these barriers, whose knives haven't been drawn yet, but who are already heating up. These people usually have several things in common:
1. The ability to perceive the world far exceeds that of peers
The folding structure of this world is very serious. Communication between different ages, classes, and industries is becoming more and more thin. A lot of adults have little to no intuition about what young people really think. We often think that young people think in vain, but it is likely that they are on the front line of future needs. Their perception of social, AI, culture, and lifestyle is often more forward-looking than those of us who operate within the social structure. The younger the person, the more they can sense the direction of the tide.
A useful way to judge is whether he can see things that others don't see, and can try to create them from those perceptions.
2. Problem-oriented, hands-on
A lot of people are now saying they want to learn AI, but most people are just being pushed by the trend. You go to a class and forget about it within a few days. When I saw a certain product explode, I rushed to try it, but there was no follow-up after trying it. And the young people who are really worth investing in are the kind of people who explore and find problems, and then learn skills. He didn't learn AI because it was popular, but because he found that a problem had to be solved with AI. This kind of problem mainly revolves around their own needs, and there is no product in the world that can be solved. So his learning path is backwards: problem-solving path→ → learning skills.
This logic changes everything. Because once it's goal-driven learning, there's an amazing amount of focus and absorption. They are not locked in by work, they don't have too many responsibilities, they have time, energy, and curiosity. For them, studying is not for exams, not for resumes, but for doing things, or to change the world.
This is the best soil for "learning by doing".
Third, the density and enforceability of curiosity are extremely high
Young people are not the only ones who are curious, but they have the highest density and enforceability of curiosity. They are willing to look up information, chase videos, test code, and start small projects because of a problem. They don't have a lot of frameworks and don't think about whether it will help me in my career path or if I can add it to my resume. What's more, they are not easily structurally suppressed, and their lives have not yet been completely occupied by the logic of success.
While most adults' curiosity is professional, when they enter the workplace, their exploration is often limited, and they serve the existing goals. And young people, can "wander around". This stage has no clear benefits, but it is the easiest to grow true creativity.
Fourth, self-iteration ability
They don't necessarily understand compound interest, but the way they do things is compound interest. They are accustomed to recording trial and error, summarizing paths, and constantly optimizing. So as to optimize their behavior and adjust their interaction system with the world. This is one of the most overlooked, but significant traits in the long run.
It is also a manifestation of long-termism. It's not that I want to do something long-term, but that after every failure, they ask, "What did I learn from this?" Will it still be used in the future? What can I do better next time? ”
Each failure is not a zero, but a superposition. Eventually, at some point in time, they suddenly burst out with maturity and creativity far beyond the ordinary - we thought they became famous overnight, but in fact they had been growing underground for many years, but no one noticed.
Fifth, be able to go through the stage of failure and endure no one's understanding, and persist and persist
You will find that these young people are not strong at the beginning. They are also scared and hesitant, but they are different from most people: they do not run away. They know they're not ready, but they still choose to be ready. They are not afraid of staged failure because they understand that failure is not the end, but part of the trial-and-error path.
They are not inherently fearless, but they know that if they are afraid of the cost, they will never be qualified to talk about dreams. They are not necessarily smarter than others, but they prefer to believe that the confusion of the present is the fuel to the future. People who really have structural growth force are often in the loneliest moments, without relying on applause or thrust, and still gritting their teeth and walking.
I have to mention the reality that they may be exhausted and exhausted on some difficult and wrong paths. It's not that they don't go the wrong way, but they often go too deep, too long, lonely and stubborn. In this case, we really need our encouragement and guidance, tell them the truth, help them avoid detours, and protect the fire in their hearts. Even if it is faint for a while, it deserves to be protected until it ignites again.
6. Wisdom and stupidity
In addition to these inner abilities, I have also found a trait that is often misunderstood: they may actually seem a bit stupid and illogical, such as not being good at stop-loss, not knowing how to speculate, and not taking shortcuts. They may have a wide range of interests in the early days, but once they have chosen a direction, they will give up hundreds or thousands of entertainment, social interactions, and even academic qualifications. They are not utilitarian, but extremely focused, and can even sacrifice an entire stage of life order for an idea. What they give up is not youth, but unnecessary distractions, and they are willing to choose something that is truly worth investing in for decades at a critical stage.
People who are too smart can often do everything, but it is difficult to insist on one thing to do it to the extreme. And these people who look stupid are more penetrating. They are not fancy, they are not tactful, but they have a clear goal and a firm foot.
Their path rarely appears in the class schedule or resume. They don't know how to do PPT, they may be biased and unsociable, but they often respond very quickly to complex issues. They may drop out of school, work on unpopular projects, and stick to things that no one understands. This kind of "weirdness" is not for rebellion, but out of instinctive disobedience. They don't follow the crowd, they just always look for their own direction.
It is precisely because these qualities are not easily captured by traditional standards that I began to try to establish a new framework for understanding this type of person, and I came up with the concept of structural outgrowth.
The young people I've seen who are worth investing in
I have seen an undergraduate student at Zhejiang University who hardly participates in any school activities and only delves into the path he deems identified. He worked at the bottom of a company for a year and a half to study, and then spent several months systematically analyzing the industry and market. His goal is to become an embodied intelligence in ten years, and he judges that timing is not yet there, and his goal now is to build a startup company before that, so as to practice his skills and accumulate funds. So as a background in a prestigious school, he unusually chose a direction that most people can't look down on.
I still remember the first time we met through a friend, and for the first 20 minutes, he barely looked at me, didn't say a word, and his expression was relatively cold. It wasn't until I output some valuable insights that he became interested, looked up at me, and began to ask questions. He's not apathetic, he's just not interested in wasting time. This kind of person, once opened, has great potential.
Another example is that I was once a student in a group of entrepreneurs who had dropped out of school. One day, I was writing in a coffee shop, and I wanted to talk to someone temporarily, and I asked the circle of friends, and he came over. A few days later I wanted to play badminton, but I couldn't find a partner, so he came again. These two times were not for any chance, but more of a gut drive, and he felt that it might be a door worth opening.
We ended up investing in him. Later, he dropped out of Tsinghua University at the age of 19, and at the age of 23 this year, he has already obtained 100 million yuan in financing, behind which are several of the world's top funds and well-known individuals. In the next few years, his growth curve was extremely steep, he chose the most difficult path, and endured too many things that ordinary people could not endure, and the starting point of everything was just that he silently observed in the group, acted in time, and was willing to go out to chat. A lot of what we think of as accidents is actually some kind of self-directed determination.
Of course, I've also missed out on people with potential. For example, three or four years ago, there was a post-00s girl, who was just an intern in a startup company with less than ten people at the beginning, but she did everything like a co-creator, and she had a strong tossing power, and after a few years, she started her own business and got millions of dollars in financing, which was very strong. At first, I didn't value her, because she didn't have a background in a prestigious school, she didn't have a technical background, and she was too young to start from a prominent background.
This made me reflect on the fact that the real meaningful investment is not to support more people who can already succeed, but to identify those forces that are not favored at an early stage. Entrepreneurs from prestigious universities do have a high success rate, but they already have better platforms and resources, and investing in them is actually limited in the incremental value we can provide to society. And the real social value of investment is to see those who are not favored in the first place, and firmly support their growth at an early stage. And the starting point of these people is not important, what matters is the structural growth force and their growth slope.
There are many such examples in history. Wang Ning of Bubble Mart graduated from Zhengzhou Sias College and now has a market value of more than 200 billion; DJI's Wang Tao, with a bachelor's degree from East China Normal University, is now valued at more than 100 billion yuan; Nie Yunchen of Heytea graduated from Guangdong Vocational College of Science and Technology, with a company valuation of more than 60 billion. They are not because of the background, but because of the strength of the growth path, and because they have a strong structural outgrowth capacity. Their very existence broadens society's imagination of success.
As a result, I started to listen more actively to young people's ideas and understand their backgrounds and upbringing, rather than just looking at current projects or resumes. Because judging a person in the early stage is not based on BP or resume, but on whether you are willing to walk into his small but true expressions, and whether you can see his unformed edge from a chat and an observation.
Nurturing young people and investing in a project are two different things. The real investment does not rely on formulas, but on trust in a state of low information. Since ancient times, heroes have come out of teenagers, are you willing to believe a young man who has not yet graduated.
Have you ever seen a young man like this?
You might as well try to find such a person around you. Or are you the one who works silently in the corner? If so, come and talk to us. Perhaps the next world-changing story starts with a coffee and a game of ball.
Lately, I've also been trying to build mechanisms for these people to be seen. Not to screen the best, but to prevent those who are most likely to change the world from being buried.
I've always felt that casting people is both scientific and romantic. Science is that you judge, compare, model; The romance lies in your willingness to believe that a young person who has not yet graduated could redefine the industry in ten years and change the world in a few decades.
My task is to say at the right time, "I see you." ”
If you want, you can also be the one who sees them.